How many copies of my book "Land is a Big Deal" will get sold in the first month?
14
860Ṁ732
resolved Nov 16
100%29%
101-500
1.4%Other
0.6%
< 100
31%
501-750
8%
751-1000
8%
1001-1500
11%
1501-2000
10%
2000+

I wrote a book. It's called "Land is a Big Deal":
www.landisabigdeal.com

It's based on my series of posts on Georgism on Astral Codex Ten:
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-progress-and-poverty
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/does-georgism-work-is-land-really

I believe Scott said that the articles collectively received 300,000+ views.

Some facts:

  • The book is published by a very small publisher (literally the second book they've published)

  • It's my first book.

  • I don't have an amazingly organized plan for promotion but I got a lot of great endorsements from some famous people.

I'll post some ranges, pick the one you think is most likely.

Resolution will count all book sales sold across all formats (Book, Audio Book, eBook) and stop counting one month after the book is published October 15, 2022. It will include all preorders made before then.

Further context, this comment from a lady from NPD bookscan on what the most common sales figures for books are:
https://countercraft.substack.com/p/no-most-books-dont-sell-only-a-dozen/comment/8883524

Money quote: "roughly 66% of those books from the top 10 publishers sold less than 1,000 copies over 52 weeks."

So roll it all together and make your guess about how well you think I will do relative to those odds.

Sep 25, 10:46pm: Also here's what twitter thinks:
https://twitter.com/larsiusprime/status/1574231191741497345

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