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MANIFOLD
Will my tabletop detective game sell 30+ copies before December?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ21
Jan 1
54%
chance

I recently completed the first paid case and a free mini case of a tabletop detective mystery game I've been working as a solo passion project (https://www.hometowndetective.com/)

This market concerns the number of sales of the paid case starting at market creation and ending on November 30, 2026 at 11:59PM Eastern Time

Resolution:

  • Each completed paid transaction through any authorized storefront counts as one purchase. The current storefronts are Lemon Squeezy and itch.io (I might add more)

  • Free review copies, test transactions, and purchases by me or family members don't count

  • Sales that are refunded/pending refunded/charged back don't count

  • If there are <30 sales before December 1, I will resolve NO asap

  • Otherwise, I’ll keep it open through December 31 to give time for refund requests. Any new purchases made in December do not count toward the total. At the end of December, if the number of qualifying sales (ie ignoring the refunds/etc) is 30+ I will resolve YES

Additional context:

  • As of market creation, there are zero sales

  • The case is priced at $5 and will remain $5 unless I reach at least 40 sales (then I may increase it)

  • I won’t be adding any other cases to the website during this timeframe but I may make minor corrections/improvements to the existing cases/website

  • I plan to post updated sales numbers approximately every three weeks

  • At resolution time, I'll post a redacted screenshot of the sales pages

  • I will not trade in this market

My current marketing plan:

  • Give out review copies to influential-seeming people

  • Post on subreddits (?)

  • Other small scale stuff as I think of it

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
Market context
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