1,000
3.00
@PoliticalEconomyPK A market where the best strategy is not to get involved. But people did:
It was nicely posed to look impossible. So people thought it couldn't happen so made limit orders on no. But too many people placed such orders which made it possible for me to build a significant enough position with enough profits on yes.
It looked attractive enough to me so I went for it. I can trade orders against my own limit orders to build trading volume at a cost of the fees involved. This trade against myself had been done several times on other mini markets by the same creator so the information was available.
No doubt much more could be written ....
I was one of those NO limit orders. 1k mana NO @ 95%, for a total of 20k NO shares.
Once I realised what's going to happen, I tried various shenanigans to delay ChristopherRandles (and to trade out of my doomed NO position):
spamming YES limit orders @ 99% so that my orders have priority* over ChristopherRandles's, forcing him to trade against me, letting me gradually exit my position and at the same time reduce his YES position
taking ChristopherRandles's YES limit orders @ 99%, using up all his liquid mana, and causing him to need to sell some YES shares
But ultimately I had < 1/10th ChristopherRandles's liquid mana, and these could only be speedbumps, and cannot fully stop him. So I stopped resisting once I'd mostly extracted myself from my initial mistake. (I will end up with a loss of -79 mana instead of -1k.)
I did cost him more transaction costs and time and effort, though.
You'd need someone with more liquid mana than ChristopherRandles to block him with a tight pair of limit orders, and that just invites an even bigger whale to come in, break the block, and take ChristopherRandles's place.
If Louis keeps this up, NO holders on this market may want to watch out:
https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-someone-have-won-masters-leagu
@puffymist it's calculated on a curve by direction bet, market percent, and amount spent, but it basically boils down to 3.5% of shares bought
@Stralor wait, I'm wrong about this aha. I forget the real number, but it's some constant amount of shares. (0.7%? idr)
@ChristopherRandles This market has only 300 mana of AMM liquidity. NO holders selling could only get a total of ~5 mana of payout. They aren't going to sell.