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MANIFOLD
When will a ceasefire in Lebanon start?
7
Ṁ120Ṁ225
resolved Oct 8
100%94%Other
0.5%
28th September
0.5%
29th September
0.5%
30th September
0.8%
1st October
0.5%
2nd October
0.5%
3rd October
0.5%
4th October
0.5%
5th October
0.5%
6th October
0.5%
7th October
0.5%
8th October

This market is focused on predicting when a ceasefire will be officially declared in Lebanon. A ceasefire is defined as a formal agreement between the conflicting parties to stop hostilities and military actions within Lebanon. The ceasefire must be publicly announced by the involved parties or facilitated by an international entity (e.g., the United Nations) to be considered valid.

Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve based on the first official announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon, as confirmed by trustworthy news sources or official statements. The outcome will be determined by the date of this announcement.

Notes:

  • If there are any ambiguities or disputes regarding the nature of the ceasefire, the market creators will consult multiple sources to ensure an accurate and fair resolution.

Market context
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