On which day will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public? (exact day)
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Plus
16
Ṁ15k
resolved Dec 10
Resolved
NO
December 4
Resolved
NO
December 5
Resolved
NO
December 6
Resolved
NO
December 7
Resolved
NO
December 8
Resolved
NO
December 11
Resolved
NO
December 12
Resolved
NO
December 13
Resolved
NO
December 14
Resolved
NO
December 15
Resolved
NO
December 18
Resolved
NO
December 19
Resolved
NO
December 20
Resolved
YES
Will not be released during this period

All date in 2024!

Background OpenAI's Sora is a text-to-video AI model capable of creating realistic and creative videos from text descriptions. While the model has been demonstrated publicly through sample videos, it is currently in a research and testing phase. OpenAI is working to address various challenges including safety concerns, technical limitations, and high computational costs before making it available to the public.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the date when Sora becomes publicly available through OpenAI's platform or API between December 4-20, 2024. Public availability means:

  • The model is accessible to general users (not just select partners or researchers)

  • Users can generate their own videos using the model (whether through direct access or API)

The market will resolve to "Will not be released during this period" if:

  • Sora is not made publicly available by December 20, 2024

  • Only a limited beta or restricted access is provided

  • Only sample videos or demonstrations are released without actual public access

Considerations

  • OpenAI has not announced any release timeline for Sora

  • Previous AI model releases from OpenAI (like GPT-4) involved extensive testing periods and gradual rollouts

  • The company typically announces major releases several days to weeks in advance

  • Technical challenges and safety concerns may impact the release timeline

  • High computational requirements and generation costs could affect the release strategy

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@LCBOB Can you decide how to resolve this?

@mods can you resolve 'Will not be released during this period' to YES?

@LCBOB I thought that all NO is more fair than resolving that as YES, given that its description is more explicit:
'The market will resolve to "Will not be released during this period" if:

Sora is not made publicly available by December 20, 2024

Only a limited beta or restricted access is provided

Only sample videos or demonstrations are released without actual public access'

None of these three happened

@12c498e lmao again the lesson is to never trade on markets with ambiguous descriptions

sold Ṁ15 YES

Looks like it's launching today? Why is December 9th not an option here?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I took it to mean that December 11 counts, as the first day in the list on which it is available. Strange wording though

@12c498e Maybe the creator meant to only include weekdays, but got it wrong?

I guess December 11 makes the most sense out of the available options.

sold Ṁ43 NO

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Another option since these are all independent would be NO on every date, but that seems a little unfair to people betting YES on December 11 now.

bought Ṁ50 YES

it says (exact day), idk

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