All date in 2024!
Background OpenAI's Sora is a text-to-video AI model capable of creating realistic and creative videos from text descriptions. While the model has been demonstrated publicly through sample videos, it is currently in a research and testing phase. OpenAI is working to address various challenges including safety concerns, technical limitations, and high computational costs before making it available to the public.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the date when Sora becomes publicly available through OpenAI's platform or API between December 4-20, 2024. Public availability means:
The model is accessible to general users (not just select partners or researchers)
Users can generate their own videos using the model (whether through direct access or API)
The market will resolve to "Will not be released during this period" if:
Sora is not made publicly available by December 20, 2024
Only a limited beta or restricted access is provided
Only sample videos or demonstrations are released without actual public access
Considerations
OpenAI has not announced any release timeline for Sora
Previous AI model releases from OpenAI (like GPT-4) involved extensive testing periods and gradual rollouts
The company typically announces major releases several days to weeks in advance
Technical challenges and safety concerns may impact the release timeline
High computational requirements and generation costs could affect the release strategy
@LCBOB I thought that all NO is more fair than resolving that as YES, given that its description is more explicit:
'The market will resolve to "Will not be released during this period" if:
Sora is not made publicly available by December 20, 2024
Only a limited beta or restricted access is provided
Only sample videos or demonstrations are released without actual public access'
None of these three happened
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I took it to mean that December 11 counts, as the first day in the list on which it is available. Strange wording though
@12c498e Maybe the creator meant to only include weekdays, but got it wrong?
I guess December 11 makes the most sense out of the available options.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Another option since these are all independent would be NO on every date, but that seems a little unfair to people betting YES on December 11 now.