MANIFOLD
Will any U.S. Senate seat scheduled for the November 2024 election be decided by fewer than 0.1% of its district votes?
4
Ṁ197Ṁ310
resolved Nov 19
Resolved
NO

The following states have one or both U.S. Senate seat(s) up for election this year in November:

Arizona

California

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Hawaii

Indiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Michigan

Mississippi

Missouri

North Dakota

Nebraska* (one general and one special election to replace Ben Sasse)

Nevada

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

I will review the data from all of these elections, and once certified, will resolve this market YES if any of these elections are determined by less than 0.1% of the votes received. I will not round down; the number must be 0.001 or less.

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Sorry for the delay on this. I thought I’d included the House, which would take about as long longer as they’re taking to count all the votes. Pennsylvania at 0.25% was the closest, and Michigan also had a close race with 0.36%. Resolved NO

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