Will Apple's first AR/VR headset have an outward facing screen that shows your eyes?
resolved Jun 5

This has been rumoured for much of this year: https://www.imore.com/apples-mixed-reality-headset-could-have-external-screen-show-people-your-facial-expressions

This market won't resolve until either Apple announces an AR, VR, or MR head-mounted display, or they don't release one before 2030. It resolves YES if such a display has a screen on the outside of the device, facing the outside world, that shows your eyes (or a reproduction of them) to other people around you.

It resolves N/A if Apple doesn't announce an AR/VR/MR headset at all by 2030, or if something else prevents Apple from doing so (such as Apple ceasing to exist).

It resolves to NO in all other circumstances, including if the first AR or VR device Apple announces has a fully transparent display with no outward-facing screen, and if Apple announces a device with an outward-facing screen but no built-in feature to show your eyes.

This market will resolve on that device's announcement, not its release.

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Kronopath avatar
Kronopathpredicted YES

This feature has been officially announced with the name “EyeSight”, so I’m resolving this as “Yes”.

I have no idea why some of you decided to bid this down so low in the final days despite no news. Enjoy your losses I guess?

makoyass avatar
mako yasspredicted YES

How will it resolve if they keep it ambiguous on announce as to whether the black front is a screen, or whether it'll have an expression pass-out feature? I'd give that like a 12% chance of happening.

Expression pass-out is important, but its importance might not be obvious to consumers until they're in a room with someone who's using it, and until you've had that experience it might just come across as a bit weird and goofy, and apple might realize that, even if they plan on having it enabled by default on delivery.

Kronopath avatar
Kronopathpredicted YES

If they keep it ambiguous, I might delay resolution until it’s clear one way or the other. I would expect it to be clear by release at very least.

Gabrielle avatar

@Kronopath If Apple releases an initial "limited release" or "Developer edition" that theoretically can be bought be anyone but is intended only for software developers creating apps for it, and that device doesn't have this screen, but the "public release" that is intended for everyone does have this screen, how would this resolve?

Kronopath avatar
Kronopathpredicted YES

That’s a good question! The intent of this market is mainly to gauge the likelihood of this feature in a consumer-purchasable device, so it gets fuzzy when you release something “intended for developers”. For example, something akin to Apple’s MacBook Pro or Mac Pro lines would count, since it’s purchasable by anyone, but some kind of heavily-restricted dev kit that you have to apply for would not.

Historically the only time I can remember Apple ever releasing a proper dev kit was when they released some early Mac Minis as their first computers with Apple Silicon. You had to apply for that, and the computers had to be “returned to Apple at the end of the program”, so something like that wouldn’t count in my book.

If it gets really fuzzy/controversial I might have to resolve to N/A but I’m going to try to avoid that and stick to these principles.

Also, because this resolves on announcement and not release, I expect it would be unlikely that they would release a screenless dev kit without announcing an eventual consumer product at the same-ish time.

Kronopath avatar
Kronopathpredicted YES

On this note, I’ve resolved it already. Although it’s only going to be available to developers at first, it’s been announced to be available for general consumer purchasing sometime next year.

Kronopath avatar
Kronopathpredicted YES

Related market on a potential software feature:

FabienLeGuillarm avatar
Fabien Le Guillarm

Will this question resolve YES if the outward-facing screen is not showing the actual eyes but a representation of the expressions, for example using emoji or another type of virtual eyes?

Kronopath avatar
Kronopathpredicted YES

Sure, that counts as a “reproduction” of them in my book.

Kronopath avatar
Kronopathpredicted YES

The Information has reaffirmed their story on the presence of this display once again.