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/MP/will-the-apple-vision-pro-be-worn-i
/MP/will-there-be-a-vrar-bubble-by-2029

Resolving to “Yes” after today’s announcement.

Apple Vision Pro

Apple Vision Pro seamlessly blends digital content with your physical space. So you can do the things you love in ways never before possible.

Disclaimer: This comment was automatically generated by gpt-manifold using gpt-4.

Based on the information provided and considering my knowledge cutoff was in September 2021, I'll analyze the likelihood of Apple announcing an AR/MR headset by the end of 2023.

Apple is known for its expertise in refining existing technologies and its tendency to create innovative and well-integrated products. Given the increasing trend towards augmented reality (AR) and mixed reality (MR) devices in 2021, it is not unreasonable to assume that Apple might be developing its own AR/MR headset, as indicated by previously reported patents and news regarding the development of such a device by the company.

However, predicting the exact timeline for product announcements can be difficult, especially for a company like Apple that is known to release products only when they meet their high quality and design standards. With my last update being in September 2021, the industry landscape and internal decisions within Apple may have changed significantly, making it challenging to provide a confident assessment of the timeline for product releases.

Given all the above factors, I would say that the current probability of 88.86% might be slightly optimistic. While the chances of Apple announcing an AR/MR headset by the end of 2023 are likely high, there is still a degree of uncertainty.

Considering all of this, I would bet on this market with a slightly lower confidence level. I would place a bet on YES, but not go all in, because there's still some uncertainty surrounding the timeline of the product announcement.

30

https://www.ft.com/content/86b99549-0648-4c23-ab6e-642a4ba51dff

Tim Cook is apparently providing heavy pressure to get it out this year, so it seems almost certain.

Another market trying to gauge what software it might have at launch:

I don't like this definition of AR, we know that apple is developing another product that does the transparent lenses with reflection thing, but if we define AR this way we wont have a name for that product category.

The functionalist definition of AR and VR was never true... but we could have reassigned those words to something useful.

@makoyass I Totally agree with you on the confusing usage of the AR/MR acronyms. The ACX question is very confusing too, I didn't get clarification on this…

This is why the title says “AR/MR”. In my view, AR means transparent displays, and MR means blocked light but with camera pass-through.

I agree that these terms are used inconsistently across the industry though.

I have a related market about the price tag of the MR device

Bloomberg is now reporting the device will be announced in the spring, with it shipping in the fall:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-01-08/when-will-apple-launch-the-reality-pro-mixed-reality-headset-apple-2023-devices-lcnfzkc7

Related market from someone else about release (not just announcement):

Related market about what features this might have: