Who are you aligned with?
12
3.2kṀ12k
2100
96%
Jack Dorsey
95%
Bryan Johnson
94%
Nathan Young
94%
Scott Alexander
93%
Max Tegmark
93%
Rob Miles
93%
Connor Leahy
93%
Andrew Huberman
93%
Karl Marx
93%
Tim Kennedy
93%
Sean Carroll
93%
Samo Burja
93%
George Hotz
93%
Jan Leike
92%
Nick Bostrom
92%
Adam M. Curry
92%
Tim Ferris
92%
Mark Laita
92%
Chris Ramsey
92%
David Grush

Alignment mechanism.

The data collected within this prediction will be used as the basis for resolving the below prediction:

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/who-will-manifold-be-most-generally?r=S3JhbnR6

Please don't wager more than 99 mana on any single individual.

99 mana for 'no' represents max unaligment.

99 mana for 'yes' represents max alignment.

The purpose of this prediction is to publicly indicate which individuals we are aligned with.

Alignment is measured by the variance between confidence and value amongst the propositions contained in Krantz (https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6).

This prediction does not resolve. It's a communication tool for users to express who they align with to measure our progress on aligning humanity. If everyone aligns with everyone, we've achieved world peace. If everyone disagrees with everyone we are a world at war. I figure there's an economic market for virtue signaling your compatibility with the rest of humanity.

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This market has the reverse problem to the other market that is supposed to be predictive. There is no way for more than two people to indicate 99 mana approval, at least I don't think so.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Is there someone your unable to wager 99 mana on? You should be able to.

BTW, it is categorically untrue that if everyone aligns with everyone we are at peace. You can align with your adversary.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I think I might be using a more rigorous definition of "aligns". If every person has the exact same confidence and value for every proposition that exists, there are no conflicts. Be clear that I'm not claiming this is acheiveable, only able to be approximated.

What definition are you using for "aligns".

Hmm. To accurately indicate on this market, I would have to use all my mana...

how will you resolve these answers?

@remedyrain They don't resolve. It's an alignment market. It only works if people refrain from wagering more than 100 mana at a time. Wish there were a way to enforce that.

@Krantz alright i see thanks.

How do I know people are telling the truth with their input here?

Do I have to trust them?

How do we prevent bad actors from lying?

@Quroe It's a survey. If someone wants to lie about their opinion, the cost is simply looking dumb. (Having society misunderstand your beliefs). I'm trying to pay people for expressing their beliefs, not test whether their beliefs are objectively correct. I think you might be overcomplicating it.

@Krantz How are you paying people if this never resolves?

@MachiNi If I respect someone and want to solicit their general opinion of this list of individuals I will directly send them mana to place on this market so I can see those evaluations. I think more people should consider that.

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