What is the most valuable proposition to know?
6
400Ṁ5872100
19%
Krantz can align humanity.
16%
If we could earn a living by interpretably arguing with a decentralized collective intelligence about what valuable truth is, we would acheive game theoretic futarchy.
14%
AI is going to wipe out humanity if we continue our current path
11%
What it means for two intelligent agents to "be aligned" is what it means for two intelligent agents to "have zero variance between their confidences of every proposition they have ever thought of".
10%
If we simply allowed every real person to securely evaluate every interpretable fact and treated that data as money, all other problems could be solved instrumentally using that process.
7%
Krantz can decentrally align humanity while controlling disclosure and acheive game theoretic parity of rational agents.
6%
There’s more to life than AI alignment
5%
2%
The universe is infinite.
1.9%
God exists.
1.7%
Aliens are real.
1.6%
Physical control is to reputational control as emotional control is to intellectual control.
1.6%
We control our path.
1.4%
Humanity has collectively agreed on a definition for the word "God".
1%
You must define something before being able to check for whether it exists.
This prediction serves the value assignment function of the krantz demonstration mechanism.
https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6
It will resolve when AI can provide a mechanistically interpretable proof of what proposition humanity assigns the highest value to the interpretable decentralized verification of.
It is not necessary for a given proposition to be true. Rather, the value assessed is the value of humanity collectively agreeing on any distinct confidence.
Please consider adding any propositions that you think are valuable to establish a consensus of confidence on (ideally to both predictions).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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