What is the most valuable proposition to know?
5
325Ṁ329
2100
21%
Other
16%
God exists.
13%
AI is going to wipe out humanity if we continue our current path
12%
Krantz can align humanity.
8%
We control our path.
7%
Humanity has collectively agreed on a definition for the word "God".
7%
Physical control is to reputational control as emotional control is to intellectual control.
4%
You must define something before being able to check for whether it exists.
4%
If we could earn a living by interpretably arguing with a decentralized collective intelligence about what valuable truth is, we would acheive game theoretic futarchy.
3%
The universe is infinite.
2%
We should be able to earn a living by producing data that aligns AI.
2%
Aliens are real.

This prediction serves the value assignment function of the krantz demonstration mechanism.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

It will resolve when AI can provide a mechanistically interpretable proof of what proposition humanity assigns the highest value to the interpretable decentralized verification of.

It is not necessary for a given proposition to be true. Rather, the value assessed is the value of humanity collectively agreeing on any distinct confidence.

Please consider adding any propositions that you think are valuable to establish a consensus of confidence on (ideally to both predictions).

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Do I understand correctly that this roughly translates to "which statement will ASI prove would be voted the most important to know whether it's true or not by all of humanity"?

@TheAllMemeingEye Yes, roughly. I would replace "would be voted" to "has been voted".

@Krantz thanks 👍

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