Will Russia propose a ceasefire in 2024?
Plus
37
Ṁ1841Dec 31
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
“We won’t give up what’s ours,” he pledged, adding dismissively, “If they want to negotiate, let them negotiate.”
But in a recent push of back-channel diplomacy, Mr. Putin has been sending a different message: He is ready to make a deal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war-cease-fire.html
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
What counts as "proposing a ceasefire"? For example, Russia has been consistent in offering peace since the start of the full-scale war, albeit on the conditions amounting to Ukrainian surrender. So if they propose a ceasefire on terms clearly unacceptable to Ukraine, does that count?
Does it have to be a specific proposal made to Ukraine, or just a general statement to the media saying "Why don't we cease fire?"
Related questions
Related questions
Will a ceasefire be agreed between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
4% chance
Will there be a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
8% chance
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?
1% chance
[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
3% chance
Will Russia open new front in 2024?
11% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test in 2024?
6% chance
Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024?
6% chance
Will there be a week (7-day) long ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia during 2024?
5% chance
Will Ukraine and Russia have a cease-fire or peace before 2026?
58% chance