Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX's Flight 11 ship is successfully caught upon its return to Earth. A successful catch is defined as the ship being captured by the launch tower's mechanical arms. Official confirmation from SpaceX or reputable news outlets will serve as the primary sources for resolution.

Background

SpaceX has been developing methods to recover and reuse its Starship vehicles to reduce launch costs and increase launch frequency. In October 2024, SpaceX achieved a significant milestone by catching a returning Starship booster using mechanical arms at the launch pad. This marked the first successful attempt of such a recovery, bringing the company closer to its goal of rapid reusability. (apnews.com)

However, subsequent test flights have faced challenges. For instance, in May 2025, a Starship rocket failed to deploy its payload and experienced a "rapid unscheduled disassembly" during re-entry. These incidents highlight the complexities involved in perfecting the recovery process. (ft.com)

Considerations

While SpaceX has demonstrated the capability to catch returning boosters, the success of each mission depends on various factors, including technical performance, weather conditions, and mission objectives. Traders should monitor official SpaceX communications and reputable news sources for updates on Flight 11's mission profile and recovery plans.