Resolves YES if there is a significant false-flag event in New York City before January, 7 2027.

For this market, a false flag means:

• The event is staged, faked, or deliberately orchestrated;

• It is publicly presented or framed as the work of a different actor;

• It is done with a clear political motive (e.g. to influence elections, public opinion, policy, repression, war, etc.).

There must be strong evidence and a reasonable mainstream consensus (e.g. credible investigative reporting, official inquiries, court findings, widely accepted leaked documents) that the event was staged and misattributed.

Simply using a real event as political justification does not count unless the event itself was faked.

To count, the event must be significant, meaning at least one of:

• High human impact (e.g. multiple deaths, serious injuries, or large-scale destruction);

• Major political or social impact (sustained national/international media coverage, used as central justification for major policies or crackdowns);

• Substantial scale/coordination (a serious operation, not a trivial one-person stunt).

Minor or localized incidents generally do not qualify

Scope:

• Must occur within NYC (any of the five boroughs).

• Must occur before 2027-01-01 (local time).

Examples that count:

• A bombing, shooting, or large arson attack in NYC that is initially blamed on Group X, but later credible evidence shows it was planned by Group Y to justify repression or war against Group X.

• A major staged “terror plot” or violent incident orchestrated by state or political actors, falsely attributed to another group, and used to push major security or policy changes.

Examples that do not count:

• Organic migration / “flight” of residents (e.g. many productive people who dislike crime leaving the city), even if politically important. Unless the exodus itself is fabricated with actors or false information, it is not a false flag.

• Small-scale hate hoaxes or graffiti, e.g. a supporter of one side doing antisemitic or racist graffiti to make the other side look bad, unless it escalates into a major event with large, sustained media and political consequences. Under this market, such incidents are presumed not significant and will normally not count.

• Misreporting, exaggeration, biased commentary, or political spin on real events that actually happened as reported.

Resolution:

Will resolve at the my discretion, based on:

• Credible news coverage,

• Official investigations and court documents (if any), and

• High-quality investigative reporting.

If no event clearly meets the above criteria, the market resolves NO.

• Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A false flag requires the event to be faked or staged. An organic exodus of people leaving New York would not qualify as a false flag, even if politically significant. Only if such an exodus were fabricated with actors or false information would it potentially count (subject to creator's discretion).

• Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarifies that 9/11 would only count as a false flag if it were staged. The example was listed because it was used as political justification for Middle East interventions, but the market requires events to actually be faked or staged to qualify as false flags.

• Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Small-scale hate hoaxes or graffiti, e.g. a supporter of one side doing antisemitic or racist graffiti to make the other side look bad, unless it escalates into a major event with large, sustained media and political consequences. Under this market, such incidents are presumed not significant and will normally not count.