Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Ghent University (UGent) officially fires, dismisses, or early-terminates Nathan Cofnas from his postdoctoral researcher position before January 1, 2028.

This market resolves to NO if:

• Nathan Cofnas remains employed by Ghent University as of January 1, 2028.

• His contract naturally expires, runs its course, or is not renewed/extended, without an active dismissal or early termination by the university.

• He voluntarily resigns from his position.

The primary sources of truth for resolving this market will be official announcements from Ghent University, statements published by Nathan Cofnas on his official website or Substack, or consensus coverage in credible news and academic reporting outlets (such as The Brussels Times, De Morgen, or Daily Nous). In the event of ambiguity surrounding the nature of his departure (e.g., forced resignation vs. voluntary departure), the market will resolve according to the consensus of these sources.

Background

In early 2026, Ghent University appointed American philosopher Nathan Cofnas as a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Philosophy and Moral Sciences to work on a project led by Professor Bouke de Vries. Cofnas, a self-described "race realist," previously had his association terminated by Emmanuel College at the University of Cambridge in 2024 following controversy over his blog posts arguing that there are genetic differences in intelligence between racial groups. His appointment at Ghent University sparked immediate backlash, including petitions signed by thousands of students and open letters from faculty members demanding his dismissal. Ghent University's rector, Petra De Sutter, initially declined to dismiss Cofnas, stating that his hiring followed a procedurally correct process. This market tracks whether the university will dismiss him prior to 2028.

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