Will there be a Waymo skit on SNL in 2025?
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13%
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This is Casey's medium-confidence prediction from the 1/3/15 episode of the "Hard Fork" podcast.
Market will resolve to yes if Waymo features in a Saturday Night Live skit in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.
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bought Ṁ200 NO3mo
Only a small portion or culturally significant things will get a dedicated SNL skit in 2025, so even if Waymo gets significant enough, I think there’s no more than 30% chance it makes it in the show.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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