Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, former President Donald Trump grants a pardon to any individual convicted in connection with the 2020 plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Official confirmation of such a pardon must be available through reputable news outlets or official government releases. If no such pardon is granted by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

In 2020, a group of individuals was charged with plotting to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The plot was motivated by opposition to the governor's COVID-19 restrictions and was disrupted by the FBI before it could be executed. Several individuals involved in the plot were convicted and sentenced to prison terms. Notably, Adam Fox and Barry Croft Jr. were convicted of kidnapping conspiracy and received sentences of 16 and 19 years, respectively. (axios.com)

In June 2025, reports emerged that former President Donald Trump had pardoned over 1,000 individuals involved in the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol attack, including at least 276 convicted of assaulting law enforcement officers. (apnews.com) Additionally, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer revealed that Trump had previously assured her he would not pardon Barry Croft Jr. and Adam Fox. However, Trump has recently suggested reconsidering a pardon, claiming the defendants were treated unfairly. (apnews.com)

Considerations

Traders should monitor official announcements from the Office of the Pardon Attorney and reputable news sources for any developments regarding potential pardons related to the Whitmer kidnapping plot. Given the political sensitivities and recent actions by former President Trump concerning pardons, the likelihood of such a pardon may fluctuate based on political dynamics and public opinion.