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50% chance. The inspiration for this market is I want to know whether something like a scenario that happened with the 2008 Singapore Grand Prix might happen again while being a bit more broad ( Alonso got an advantage after his teammate crashed his car in order to cause a safety car during the race): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Singapore_Grand_Prix This will resolve YES only if there is a full safety car after 10 laps have been completed (by the lead driver) that I would consider as result of Sergio Perez' actions (or possibly his team, through his car). Scenarios where I imagine this happening: Sergio crashes his car deliberately, his car stops due to mechanical/electrical or other car-related failures, he is involved in an incident that results in his or another car stopping on track (I will use my best judgement for this). A virtual safety car is not sufficient to resolve YES: the safety car must be deployed. Consider the above resolution criteria to be a draft for the next 5 hours (7 PM EST) so that if anyone has any critiques I can modify it.