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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before November 3, 2026 (the date of the U.S. midterm elections), both of the following conditions are met:

1. Inoperable Reservoirs: The water level of either Lake Powell drops below 3,490 feet (the minimum power pool elevation for Glen Canyon Dam) or Lake Mead drops below 950 feet (the minimum power pool elevation for Hoover Dam), as recorded by the official U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR).

2. Federal Emergency Declaration: President Donald Trump (or the Trump administration) formally issues a federal declaration of emergency (under the Stafford Act, National Emergencies Act, or another applicable federal statute) specifically citing the critical water levels, drought, or dam/power inoperability along the Colorado River basin.

If both of these conditions are not officially met on or before November 3, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

Data Sources for Verification:

• Official Lake Powell Hydrological Data: USBR Hydrodata or Lake Powell Tracker

• Official Lake Mead Hydrological Data: USBR Lower Colorado Region or Lake Mead Tracker

• Official Federal Emergencies: The Federal Register or White House Statements

Background

The Colorado River system, which supplies water and power to over 40 million Americans across seven basin states, has reached historically low levels in 2026. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are both hovering near all-time low capacities.

The "minimum power pool" elevations represent critical structural thresholds below which the dams can no longer generate hydroelectric power. Lake Powell's minimum power pool sits at 3,490 feet, and Lake Mead's is at 950 feet. Dropping below these elevations threatens the Western energy grid and severely limits downstream water deliveries, which may prompt federal intervention and an emergency declaration.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.