Will Russia strike a Ukrainian grain export ship during 2022?

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resolved Nov 1

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Aug 1, 6:59pm: ~~Will Russia strike a Ukrainian grain export ship during 2023?~~ → Will Russia strike a Ukrainian grain export ship during 2022?

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predictedNO

Is there a source on such a strike occurring? All the news I've been seeing has been that Russia's so far had its bluff called and been unwilling to actually take a "military solution" to forcibly interdict the grain export.

predictedNO

@jbeshir No mention in this recent piece on how the deal has now resumed of any strikes in the intervening time, for example: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/grain-ships-sail-ukraine-ports-russian-missiles-knock-out-power-across-country-2022-10-31/

How do you intend to resolve if the strike is performed by a group merely affiliated with russia (a la malaysia airlines downing)? I think a good amount of the YES is in that circumstance.

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