@NickHeinonen the entire Gaza strip, right? Not just the city of Gaza itself?

@chrisjbillington Yes, the entire Strip

I'm arbitraging this market with https://manifold.markets/JoaoPedroSantos/will-gaza-be-de-facto-controled-by. Complete military occupation surely implies "de facto control", so this market should be trading at a price below the linked market.

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of the year?

52% chance.

@EgeErdil Your arbitrage worked, but now I wonder if things haven't swung too far in the other direction?? Between this market on "complete military occupation" (24% before I bid it up to 27%) and this other market asking about "de-facto control w/simpler criteria" (was 53% before I bid it down to 44%) is a large gap!
https://manifold.markets/connorwilliams97/will-gaza-be-de-facto-controlled-by

Seems like the large difference in probability might stem from:
- the other question maybe doesn't require "complete" control of all the territory (maybe it's just referring to Gaza city, in the northern half of the Gaza strip?)
- the other question includes other options that aren't "military occupation", like some kind of puppet government which is "de-facto" under the thumb of Israel? But it seems hard for this detail to account for such a large difference in likelihood?

Will Gaza be de facto controlled by Israel at the end of 2023? (Simpler criteria)

44% chance. "Controlled" in the common sense meaning: it simply means that Israel is the entity with the monopoly on the legitimate use of force. This does not mean there are no instances of violence breaking out, it means Israel unlike Hamas are the ones calling the shots and having a presence on the ground. There are no requirements for community participation, voting, or anything of that nature. It's about control and possession of territory.

https://manifold.markets/JoaoPedroSantos/will-gaza-be-de-facto-controled-by

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of the year?

49% chance.