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It released?

@VAPOR No.

Sold as resolution unclear and it’s not a prediction but a debate market now

Not that I’m attempting to make an argument against a resolution of yes, but if what Musk says is true (prioritizing access based on how long you’ve been an X Premium subscriber, which suggests that not everyone who is a subscriber will be getting access), it’s a very self serving selection process for beta testers. Mainly his biggest fans would subscribe to X premium immediately (it came out on October 27). Additionally, many people say they can’t subscribe to X premium even now, including some who have interacted with Musk a lot, so potentially XAI may be individually selecting who can get access.

https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1721988199365677123?s=46&t=qfz6dEzytObZisI2GEll9g

@TP8ac2 So basically how everyone coordinates access to their new products

@Yves If they are handpicking who gets access instead of a regular wait list with access only based on when you signed up, that’s not how most companies coordinate a public release of products. That would be a beta test.

@TP8ac2 Than why am I on the waitlist

@Yves It might be the case that this is a real release with access solely based on the waitlist, but given how Tesla handled FSD Beta waitlists, I think there’s a good chance they aren’t actually just letting anyone who signs up get access.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1721984999845437861

https://x.com/farzyness/status/1721978929739604399?s=46&t=CYEWiZ5YuQhLnjUiOIjuyw

Non X Person seems to have access: https://x.com/stclairashley/status/1721956902903451897?s=46&t=CYEWiZ5YuQhLnjUiOIjuyw

Does anyone know anyone who actually got access?

@Eliza https://x.com/stclairashley/status/1721956902903451897?s=46&t=CYEWiZ5YuQhLnjUiOIjuyw

@Yves Interesting, so it seems like some number of 'Verified' people do have access now.

@Eliza Wait, are we sure this is not, like....a meme/humor thing where someone makes a fake post to generate engagement?

@Eliza I suppose there will be dozens of other evidence points if it is real though.

@NickHeinonen Can you clarify what is constituted by a release? We don't know what we are betting on...

@PatrikCihal Hi, if it is available for members of the general public, even with subscription or waitlist, that counts. But we need to get confirmation that is actually happening.

@NickHeinonen Thanks for the update

@NickHeinonen I am on the waitlist

Does Grok count

@UgbotuDaniel It should

@UgbotuDaniel How has Grok been "released"? It's only in beta testing. That's not a "release".

I think there’s a case to be made that the announcement of a closed, invite-only (likely Alpha) version of an LLM does not constitute a release.

@TP8ac2 OK, what's the argument?

@jim Haha, well I think that’s the beginning of the argument. We don’t know if this is released externally to anyone, and Musk’s private circle of friends, employees, and business partners shouldn’t count. I too can say I’m releasing my LLM via invitation and you can sign up to be waitlisted indeterminately.

Musk (and some of his previous investors, me included) have benefited from vapourware products that helped raise funding rounds and stock prices, but actual releases are generally several years away at best.

Publicly announcing overly optimistic roadmaps and alpha and invite-only beta tests of products that are far from ready for public release can be a viable strategy, but should not be confused for actually shipping product to the public.

@TP8ac2 yeah needs to be confirmed that random members of the public are getting access but then should resolve yes

@jim Which will never happen, so it's a NO for me dawg.