Will a deepfake video of a US political figure go viral before the 2024 US election?
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Nov 3
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bought Ṁ10 YES

It's happening with still pictures:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68440150

predicts YES

Just for the baseline:

Suspected Chinese operatives have used images made by AI to mimic American voters online in an attempt to spread disinformation and provoke discussion on divisive political issues as the 2024 US election approaches, Microsoft analysts warned

Does this require that people are generally fooled into thinking the fake video is real? Or would a funny video that gets widely shared, even though it's widely known to be fake, still resolve YES?

predicts YES

@NLeseul I'm assuming YES, and moreover I'd argue that this has to be YES, because things that are widely known to be fake still go viral among populations that claim that they are not fake.

predicts YES

@Duncn (And, contrariwise, things that are true are 'widely known to be fake'. )

@NLeseul Yes, just needs to go viral.