Which days will SpaceX preform a successful launch? (Daily Market - May)
18
203
2k
May 24
1%
May 18
1.3%
May 19
1.3%
May 20
28%
May 21
24%
May 22
55%
May 23
35%
May 24
34%
May 25
31%
May 26
30%
May 27
62%
May 28
33%
May 29
32%
May 30
30%
May 31

Each day resolves Yes if SpaceX preforms a successful launch.

"Launch" is considered complete once the rocket has successfully lifted off from the launch pad and cleared the immediate vicinity without any critical failures. The separation from the second stage or any subsequent actions are not considered part of the launch for the purposes of this market.

Dates are in the local timezone of the launch location

https://www.spacex.com/launches/

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Is payload deploy required for a successful launch?

"Launch is defined as from lift off to landing." suggests not if this is interpreted as just the booster landing. Most second stages break up rather than land and the few that have something else land, dragon, can be 6 months later and I doubt we want to wait for that. So I don't really see a sensible alternative view on what is written, but I want to check and perhaps suggest adding booster before landing and maybe an extra sentence to say something like "So payload deploy is during a later phase of the flight and success here is not considered necessary for a successful launch for this market".

@ChristopherRandles I see the problems the previous description presented. I've simplified the resolution criteria to be only about the actual launch. If boosters fail, payload isn't delivered or there are landing mishaps. The market still resolves Yes if the launch itself was successful.

May 4
bought Ṁ5 May 4 YES

I reckon there's a significant chance they'll try to piggyback off May 4th Star Wars Day hype

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