I'd like to apply for a green card, and the next step is to send a bunch of stuff to some lawyer folk. Will I do this by 10pm Mon PST?
Minor points on resolution criteria:
If it seems to me like a reasonable attempt, but the lawyers write back and say they should be edited somehow, that still counts as long as the editing takes less than 4h. If I send the stuff except that it is missing minor things from other people or organizations (e.g. the signature of my employer) that still counts. If it seems ambiguous whether it was a reasonable attempt, I'll ask a friend to adjudicate.
Some relevant evidence:
I intend to.
I think I am unusually bad at reading and writing tasks that I am not interested by.
I'm pretty averse to this task. The lawyers told me what to send in late October, and I read their email in early November, and last worked on it much in early December.
The basic idea is to write a couple of letters and also a document on topics such as what I am doing and why it is important, and also give a long list of evidence about myself. I've collected a lot of the evidence, but it probably needs filtering and organizing and adding some things to.
It's plausible to me that this should take a few hours for a different person, but I think it has already taken me at least several days (I don't have a good record of it).
I meant to work on this for 1h40m today, but worked on it for much less time (~12m?)
In the next five days I have 9 meetings/hangouts/dates/parties scheduled, another small deadline, and expect to be unwell for about half a day in expectation
I am much less calibrated about my own behavior than other things: https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/calibration-of-a-thousand-predictions
I love Manifold profits
I am sometimes invigorated by impossibility of projects, and sometimes discouraged by it
My betting will not necessarily reflect my beliefs
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@AdriaGarrigaAlonso ya sorry, worked on it for 1.5h, still a fair bit to do so seems close to the wire, hoping to do it in the coming couple of days. Tempted to make such a market, but my life may have too many constraints right now for that to be good.
Update: the lawyers are happy with it except they want me to make giant documents containing copies of every item cited in several of these seven other documents I made. My guess is that I can do this in less than four hours, but I'm not actually sure. Also not sure if this should count as 'edits' vs. a new request, but my guess is that this is what they were originally asking for, and I misunderstood, so seems like edits. Am busy all day today, but will probably try tomorrow or the next day then resolve this.
@KatjaGrace Other status updates: my thumb is not the right color, and I haven't finished my breakfast. Also I worked pretty continuously for 14h, which is a lot in my world.
@KatjaGrace Well, this reassures me that my betting was maybe +EV then. (This’ll be my biggest ever single-market loss, but it would’ve been one hell of a profit!)
Strategically, do you think I’d have had a better chance if I hadn’t filled your second big limit order - like, did that increase your motivation?
I am genuinely happy that you finished the green card thing though! Sorry if it came at the expense of your health/comfort - as I always say with no ulterior motives, health should be the #1 priority.
@Conflux I think your betting was quite plausibly +EV, under some sensical interpretation of that, though hard for me to think about.
I think your filling that one limit order probably didn't change my motivation much, but not sure.
Thank you for playing and overall contributing to me getting this done!
@KatjaGrace Congrats on sending the information in!! The price of my "NO" bet will now go to your pocket, and I've done my part in motivating you :P
Update: 7/10 social engagements in, haven't made substantial progress on this, but have more time in the coming days. Market seems motivating. However have thumb infection which is a serious typing impediment, and may eventually lead me to seek medical attention, distractingly. On net, feeling optimistic.
@KatjaGrace your health should always be the #1 priority! i have no conflicts of interest