KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
closed 7 hours ago
Will I send in my green card materials by 10pm Mon?
75%
chance

I'd like to apply for a green card, and the next step is to send a bunch of stuff to some lawyer folk. Will I do this by 10pm Mon PST?

Minor points on resolution criteria:

If it seems to me like a reasonable attempt, but the lawyers write back and say they should be edited somehow, that still counts as long as the editing takes less than 4h. If I send the stuff except that it is missing minor things from other people or organizations (e.g. the signature of my employer) that still counts. If it seems ambiguous whether it was a reasonable attempt, I'll ask a friend to adjudicate.

Some relevant evidence:

  1. I intend to.

  2. I think I am unusually bad at reading and writing tasks that I am not interested by.

  3. I'm pretty averse to this task. The lawyers told me what to send in late October, and I read their email in early November, and last worked on it much in early December.

  4. The basic idea is to write a couple of letters and also a document on topics such as what I am doing and why it is important, and also give a long list of evidence about myself. I've collected a lot of the evidence, but it probably needs filtering and organizing and adding some things to.

  5. It's plausible to me that this should take a few hours for a different person, but I think it has already taken me at least several days (I don't have a good record of it).

  6. I meant to work on this for 1h40m today, but worked on it for much less time (~12m?)

  7. In the next five days I have 9 meetings/hangouts/dates/parties scheduled, another small deadline, and expect to be unwell for about half a day in expectation

  8. I am much less calibrated about my own behavior than other things: https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/calibration-of-a-thousand-predictions

  9. I love Manifold profits

  10. I am sometimes invigorated by impossibility of projects, and sometimes discouraged by it

  11. My betting will not necessarily reflect my beliefs

Sort by:
KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 94%

Status update: I got it in!!! With seven minutes to spare. I wasn't confident I'd make it until the end.

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 94%

@KatjaGrace Other status updates: my thumb is not the right color, and I haven't finished my breakfast. Also I worked pretty continuously for 14h, which is a lot in my world.

RogerYang avatar
Rougee
sold Ṁ11 of NO

@KatjaGrace 👍 Ya done did it, nice work

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 94%

I can't actually resolve until they write back and don't say I need to do >4h more editing—there is still some hope for the naysayers!

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima
is predicting NO at 94%
Conflux avatar
Conflux
is predicting NO at 75%

@KatjaGrace Well, this reassures me that my betting was maybe +EV then. (This’ll be my biggest ever single-market loss, but it would’ve been one hell of a profit!)

Strategically, do you think I’d have had a better chance if I hadn’t filled your second big limit order - like, did that increase your motivation?

I am genuinely happy that you finished the green card thing though! Sorry if it came at the expense of your health/comfort - as I always say with no ulterior motives, health should be the #1 priority.

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 75%

@Conflux I think your betting was quite plausibly +EV, under some sensical interpretation of that, though hard for me to think about.

I think your filling that one limit order probably didn't change my motivation much, but not sure.

Thank you for playing and overall contributing to me getting this done!

Conflux avatar
Conflux
is predicting NO at 95%

@KatjaGrace Status update?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Conflux Sorry, was too busy

Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ5 of NO

@KatjaGrace busy with green card material sending or busy with other things???

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 94%

@Conflux green card materials editing!

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 94%

@KatjaGrace sent though!

RogerYang avatar
Rougee
is predicting YES at 95%

I'm not even sure if you're 95% confident or you're trying to make the market a forcing mechanism :

RogerYang avatar
Rougee
is predicting YES at 95%

@RogerYang either way, you got this

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@RogerYang Forcing mechanism!

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Update: 7/10 social engagements in, haven't made substantial progress on this, but have more time in the coming days. Market seems motivating. However have thumb infection which is a serious typing impediment, and may eventually lead me to seek medical attention, distractingly. On net, feeling optimistic.

Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ30 of NO

@KatjaGrace your health should always be the #1 priority! i have no conflicts of interest

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Update: ten social plans

AdriaGarrigaAlonso avatar

@KatjaGrace Love that you updated that and still hold yes :D

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting YES at 80%

@AdriaGarrigaAlonso And I'll buy even more yes! (Contemplating 11 social plans now..)