This will be resolved based on Y-Combinator's Startup Directory. (i.e. whether that updates fast will affect how this comes out.)
It looks to me like there are currently 216/2450 startups marked as 'inactive' from 2017-2022 cohorts (inclusive). This resolves positive if 245 more are marked as inactive by April 2024, i.e. 461 total.
Inspired by this (not sure if Gary Tan literally said 'extinction level event', but he seems to be endorsing it by QTing):
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ12 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3 |
It looks to me like the startup directory no longer lists inactive companies (there isn't a 'status' filter to find them, I opened at least 40 and couldn't find any inactive).
However it looks like it contains 2694 startups (presumably active) for 2017-2022, which is more than the total number of startups I claimed there were before. It looks (via the link) like I might have missed counting Summer 2022, but still I now count 2458 for the rest of the period (summing over numbers for different batches in the list of filters), more than I said there were in total before.
I'm inclined to resolve this negatively, but I could imagine going N/A because looks like they just aren't marked inactive at all any more, and the evidence about how many of them are inactive doesn't make sense. Any objections before I resolve NO?