Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch get into YC before EOY 2027?
Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch get into YC before EOY 2027?
5
140Ṁ1442028
65%
chance
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6H
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Website for the program here.
EA Forum post announcement of the program here.
32 page report on the program here.
The program is expected to run in January-March 2025. I will update this question with a list of the companies/founder duos that count as part of the batch, once announced/finalized.
I will accept major pivots, name changes, et.c. for a YES resolution, but entirely new companies from one founder wouldn't count.
I will not trade in this market, as resolution could get tricky.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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