Will I be convinced that Justin Trudeau is NOT Fidel Castro's son by March 1, 2022?
17
100Ṁ455resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a market to test prediction market's ability to "predict the past", or discover information about events that have already occurred.
Background: I am mostly convinced that Justin Trudeau is Fidel Castro's son based on pictures taken at similar ages, Pierre and Margaret Trudeau's closeness to Fidel, and Justin's admiration of Fidel. The de-bunking accounts depend on the claim that Pierre and Margaret did not meet Fidel until 1974, several years after Justin was born. There are opposite claims that they met with Fidel on their private honeymoon 9 months before Justin's birth. I am looking for convincing evidence either way.
Please present evidence either way in this comment thread.
This market will resolve YES if commenters can convince me that Justin Trudeau is NOT Fidel Castro's son (ie Pierre's son), NO if I'm convinced that he IS Fidel Castro's son, and N/A if I'm moved towards NO but not convinced.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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