TANSTAAFL avatar
TANSTAAFL
resolved Mar 1
Will I be convinced that Justin Trudeau is NOT Fidel Castro's son by March 1, 2022?
Resolved
NO
This is a market to test prediction market's ability to "predict the past", or discover information about events that have already occurred. Background: I am mostly convinced that Justin Trudeau is Fidel Castro's son based on pictures taken at similar ages, Pierre and Margaret Trudeau's closeness to Fidel, and Justin's admiration of Fidel. The de-bunking accounts depend on the claim that Pierre and Margaret did not meet Fidel until 1974, several years after Justin was born. There are opposite claims that they met with Fidel on their private honeymoon 9 months before Justin's birth. I am looking for convincing evidence either way. Please present evidence either way in this comment thread. This market will resolve YES if commenters can convince me that Justin Trudeau is NOT Fidel Castro's son (ie Pierre's son), NO if I'm convinced that he IS Fidel Castro's son, and N/A if I'm moved towards NO but not convinced.

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GarrettBaker avatar
Garrett Bakerbought Ṁ1 of NOYou can join the Manifold markets discord by clicking on your avatar in the top right, then clicking Discord.
TANSTAAFL avatar
TANSTAAFLbought Ṁ1 of NOI realize that the resolution is subjective and more about me than the subject. I'd like a better way of resolving this and suggestions for future markets welcome. The real value in this is the possibility of someone digging up a source that isn't widely known. If there was real money involved, you might even get full WikiLeaks type info out in public. If nothing else, it can be a way to get people to self-educate on a topic without pre-filtering their sources. (Also, since you have to bet to comment, I'd suggest initially betting $1 to join in the conversation and then making real bets later. A way to discuss each individual market on Discord would be nice.)
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ5 of NOMy first reaction to seeing this market was "haha, that's ridiculous" bu the facts do look awfully suspicious. I'm not sure if I *actually* think it's true, but given your prior opinion I'm not sure you'll be convinced.