Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050
Will Elon be able to send humans to Mars before 2050
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Since the creator deleted their account and this market has more than a couple traders, I'm going to reopen it to let people keep trading. This question will be managed and resolved by the mod team; ping me or another mod as needed.
Some details:
"Elon" will mean SpaceX or another Elon Musk founded / owned company, whether or not Elon is still in charge or alive.
"Be able to" will be interpreted as "actually sends at least one".
By 2050 will mean launch before 2050. (Since the title is about "send to".)
Mars will include surface landing, Mars orbit, or Mars flyby.
The people in question must be alive and well enough to make radio contact with Earth after the landing, orbital insertion, or flyby in question.
Let me know if any of those clarifications seem unreasonable!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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