Will it snow in January markets:
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-toronto-january-202
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-montreal-january-20
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-st-johns-nl-january
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-halifax-ns-january [This one]
Resolves YES if any amount of snow touches the ground (including E = Estimates, and T = Trace)
Resolves NO for Total Snow 0.0cm
Resolution Criteria: Total Snow (cm) at HALIFAX STANFIELD INT'L A:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=50620
Weather Forecast:
https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ns-19_metric_e.html
Each day can be bet on independently and can be resolved the day after.
Notes:
- Until Manifold allows setting independent close dates on multiple choice markets, I will be setting the close date for these markets to every morning at 11AM UTC. The data for the previous day is usually available by then. I will resolve the previous day and reopen the market as soon as I can get around to it every day.
- Mods: Feel free to resolve the days that have met their resolution criteria if I haven't yet and/or set the new close date a day later.
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Observation: based on past data, one should bet at about 90% probability that a particular day will resolve yes. The environment canada website says the likelihood of precipitation is about 60%, and people seem to be anchoring on that, but if January 1st had resolved correctly, then so far 2/21 days in January have resolved NO. I expect that the environment canada website might be excluding E or T ratings.