Will it snow in Halifax, NS? [January 2024]
19
863
5.2k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO
January 1st
Resolved
YES
January 2nd
Resolved
YES
January 3rd
Resolved
YES
January 4th
Resolved
YES
January 5th
Resolved
YES
January 6th
Resolved
YES
January 7th
Resolved
YES
January 8th
Resolved
NO
January 9th
Resolved
YES
January 10th
Resolved
YES
January 11th
Resolved
YES
January 12th
Resolved
YES
January 13th
Resolved
YES
January 14th
Resolved
YES
January 15th
Resolved
YES
January 16th
Resolved
YES
January 17th
Resolved
YES
January 18th
Resolved
NO
January 19th
Resolved
YES
January 20th

Will it snow in January markets:
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-toronto-january-202

/Kable/will-it-snow-in-montreal-january-20
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-st-johns-nl-january
/Kable/will-it-snow-in-halifax-ns-january [This one]

Resolves YES if any amount of snow touches the ground (including E = Estimates, and T = Trace)

Resolves NO for Total Snow 0.0cm

Resolution Criteria: Total Snow (cm) at HALIFAX STANFIELD INT'L A:
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=50620


Weather Forecast:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ns-19_metric_e.html

Each day can be bet on independently and can be resolved the day after.

Notes:
- Until Manifold allows setting independent close dates on multiple choice markets, I will be setting the close date for these markets to every morning at 11AM UTC. The data for the previous day is usually available by then. I will resolve the previous day and reopen the market as soon as I can get around to it every day.

- Mods: Feel free to resolve the days that have met their resolution criteria if I haven't yet and/or set the new close date a day later.

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bought Ṁ25 of Answer #cd5997d18cd3 YES

Observation: based on past data, one should bet at about 90% probability that a particular day will resolve yes. The environment canada website says the likelihood of precipitation is about 60%, and people seem to be anchoring on that, but if January 1st had resolved correctly, then so far 2/21 days in January have resolved NO. I expect that the environment canada website might be excluding E or T ratings.

January 1st

Woops I mis-resolved this. Thankfully I was the only one who voted YES. I'll be more careful lol. Manifold doesn't let you change resolution on multiple choice markets yet.