https://bsky.app/profile/joshuajfriedman.com/post/3lzhzqp7e7c2f
For the purpose of this market, a Christian Rapture-Like Event occurs iff:
At least 70 people
Who are probably Christian (broad)
Get raptured
For reasons that are unlikely to be connected to terrorism, worldly violence, or outgroup conflict
And aren’t able to be contacted again by friends or loved ones
Not all Christians need to be taken, just a couple of them, say 70.
All satisfied options to resolve YES.
open questions to discuss in the comments:
does death count?
should any judeo Christian branch count? (Leaning yes)
does disappearance (à la LaHaye and Jenkins, 1995) count? or must there be an ascendance to heaven, calls of trumpets, etc?
My own subjective reasoning will resolve in the end but I can be swayed by discussion, so keep an eye on the comments before putting a large stake.
I am (very reluctantly) Christian, so if I get taken (or if, say, I get sent to the eternal fires of Heck for being trans), the mods will resolve however they see fit. Be sure to bicker about it in the comments, it drives engagement.
Update 2025-09-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Self-induced “raptures” count: Events like Jonestown-style mass self-rapture would qualify toward YES, provided they are not tied to terrorism or global/worldly conflict.
Potential re-resolution: If it’s later discovered the raptees did not reach Heaven, the creator may ask mods to re-resolve.
Exclusions reiterated: Acts involving terrorism or global/worldly conflict do not count; e.g., a group killing other Christians is treated as worldly conflict and excluded.
1,000People are also trading
@GazDownright I kinda think they should maybe ? Like the only ones who knew whether such autoraptures were successful or not were the raptees, but they sadly aren’t available for comment
What are your thoughts?
@KJW_01294 Fwiw, I think the market will have slightly higher YES probability and therefore be more engaging if you include such events. But if, on the other hand, you want it to be about straight up no-trace disappearance, that's also a market.
@GazDownright let’s say that Jonestown and self-rapture would have counted. If we later discover that the raptees didn’t make it into Heaven, we can ask mods to re-resolve as appropriate.
Keep in mind that terrorist acts and other global conflict wouldn’t count in my book. So if a group kills other Christians for example, I think I would count that as worldly conflict.
@KJW_01294 You could, of course, make the resolution a long-term project. Say we have a suspected rapture by next year, but we’re left in limbo about whether they actually ascended to heaven. If we then wait until you yourself, one day in the future, are in a position to potentially reach heaven, you could send us (or our descendants for those of us departing before you) a sign confirming whether you found them there. Any absence of a sign would mean they weren’t there. And if you’re turned away at heaven’s gates, I’m sure Peter will be able to confirm whether or not the alleged raptees are inside.
I’m only betting to set initial probabilities before adding liquidity. I won’t bet again.