We're remembering this decays linearly from whenever we calculated the probability to EOY, yeah?

@Tomoffer Yep and also the odds pop up if either shows signs of mortality. Hospital visits, odd posture, signs of dementia, etc.

Assuming they're average men, and their deaths are statistically independent, actuarial tables give a probability of ~13% that one or the other will die in the next year: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

@BenWeinsteinRaun 4 presidents have been killed in assassinations; a rate of like 1.6% per year. Factoring this in (and pretending that both are presidents) gives ~16% for the next year.

@BenWeinsteinRaun Does this factor in the fact that Trump is blatantly obese?

@JustinHalford More than average for his demographic?

@JustinHalford no; I didn't use any info about them individually. My guess is that, on net, both men's relative wealth and lack of existing acute health problems would make the estimate come out lower.

@BenWeinsteinRaun While wealth is a positive signal, Trump is clearly obese. How many 6’3” 285lb men do you see live to 85? He’d be lucky to make it to 2028.

@JustinHalford we have a market for this!

@JustinHalford I know quite a few. Obesity after 40 years of age only shaves off about 4 years off your life

@jeremiahsamroo Do you also know a few obese 6’3” men who are being tried for multiple crimes at once and are living under that stress?

@BenWeinsteinRaun

@BenWeinsteinRaun that has to be an upper bound, given that they are both in good health currently

@BenWeinsteinRaun They both clearly have above average medical support and above average attention. For example, if they have a stroke, there is a good chance that help is close and quick.

On the other hand, their lifestyle is also above average stressful I think.

Together, I would lower the chance from the actuary table to 8%. That computes to 18% for this question.

@marketwise How do you get from 8% to 18%?

@Simon74fe 8% is about one person but we estimate for "either". However, 92%*92%=85% so I made some mistake there. 🤔

@marketwise The actuarial table the probability is about 12% that at least one of them dies (5-7% for each person). Didn't you want to get lower than the actuarial table?

@Simon74fe One advantage of telling everybody your thoughts is that sometimes someone shows you where you are wrong. Thanks. 😂

@JustinHalford

At this point I have to assume you're planning an assassination or a misresolution?

@Joshua I’m crying laughing at this comment lol

I’m absolutely tired of people who are well into retirement age running our government so what better way than to use some valueless currency to express my dissatisfaction with our collective failure to organize ourselves even somewhat optimally.

@JustinHalford Glad to hear your reasoning, I agree with the sentiment and am happy to take your protestation play money. 🤝

@Joshua the pleasure is mine 🫡

@JustinHalford Are you going to go bankrupt if neither of them dies?

@Simon74fe Would I go bankrupt if I lost a game of monopoly?

@JustinHalford No, but you would have to stop playing

@Simon74fe Daily refills 😇

And if I’m right, I’ll be kicking back with Yudkowsky sipping mai tais atop my heap of mana.