Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the 2024 Presidential election?
Nov 6

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We're remembering this decays linearly from whenever we calculated the probability to EOY, yeah?

2 traders bought Ṁ110 NO
predicts YES

@Tomoffer Yep and also the odds pop up if either shows signs of mortality. Hospital visits, odd posture, signs of dementia, etc.

Assuming they're average men, and their deaths are statistically independent, actuarial tables give a probability of ~13% that one or the other will die in the next year: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

predicts NO

@BenWeinsteinRaun 4 presidents have been killed in assassinations; a rate of like 1.6% per year. Factoring this in (and pretending that both are presidents) gives ~16% for the next year.

@BenWeinsteinRaun Does this factor in the fact that Trump is blatantly obese?

predicts NO

@JustinHalford More than average for his demographic?

predicts NO

@JustinHalford no; I didn't use any info about them individually. My guess is that, on net, both men's relative wealth and lack of existing acute health problems would make the estimate come out lower.

predicts YES

@BenWeinsteinRaun While wealth is a positive signal, Trump is clearly obese. How many 6’3” 285lb men do you see live to 85? He’d be lucky to make it to 2028.

@JustinHalford we have a market for this!

predicts NO

@JustinHalford I know quite a few. Obesity after 40 years of age only shaves off about 4 years off your life

@jeremiahsamroo Do you also know a few obese 6’3” men who are being tried for multiple crimes at once and are living under that stress?

predicts YES

@BenWeinsteinRaun that has to be an upper bound, given that they are both in good health currently

@BenWeinsteinRaun They both clearly have above average medical support and above average attention. For example, if they have a stroke, there is a good chance that help is close and quick.

On the other hand, their lifestyle is also above average stressful I think.

Together, I would lower the chance from the actuary table to 8%. That computes to 18% for this question.

@marketwise How do you get from 8% to 18%?

predicts NO

@Simon74fe 8% is about one person but we estimate for "either". However, 92%*92%=85% so I made some mistake there. 🤔

predicts NO

@marketwise The actuarial table the probability is about 12% that at least one of them dies (5-7% for each person). Didn't you want to get lower than the actuarial table?

bought Ṁ800 NO from 16% to 15%

@Simon74fe One advantage of telling everybody your thoughts is that sometimes someone shows you where you are wrong. Thanks. 😂

Justin HalfordboughtṀ1,624YES


At this point I have to assume you're planning an assassination or a misresolution?

@Joshua I’m crying laughing at this comment lol

I’m absolutely tired of people who are well into retirement age running our government so what better way than to use some valueless currency to express my dissatisfaction with our collective failure to organize ourselves even somewhat optimally.

@JustinHalford Glad to hear your reasoning, I agree with the sentiment and am happy to take your protestation play money. 🤝

predicts YES

@Joshua the pleasure is mine 🫡

predicts NO

@JustinHalford Are you going to go bankrupt if neither of them dies?

@Simon74fe Would I go bankrupt if I lost a game of monopoly?

predicts NO

@JustinHalford No, but you would have to stop playing

predicts YES

@Simon74fe Daily refills 😇

And if I’m right, I’ll be kicking back with Yudkowsky sipping mai tais atop my heap of mana.

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