The United Auto Workers union is in the process of negotiating a new contract with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, as their previous contract expires September 14. This outcome will impact tens of thousands of workers at GM and their suppliers and could cause billions in lost revenue.
The last strike at GM was in 2019. More information on the UAW can be found on their website https://uaw.org
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@JustinFortier I think this can be resolved now:
Union Workers Ratify Contract at General Motors https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/16/business/uaw-ratify-contract-general-motors.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
The first chunk of GM votes came in 58% Yes and 42% No. Given that most of them have yet to vote, and the process is very swingy, and a rejection of the deal would result in a pretty hectic (potential wildcat) strike, this started to feel like more of an 80/20 situation.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QRtaTUVfEvJzav_qKJ87OIQ3hH0b0-wqrgSq_Cj831I/edit#gid=0
Although the Ford ratification has been going very smoothly, the GM vote has actually been very mixed, so I am hedging with a small bet on 56+ days in case the count resumes. https://www.abc12.com/news/uaw-strike/gm-flint-assembly-production-workers-vote-against-uaw-contract/article_e7b91dc2-7fc8-11ee-8060-27aa19476380.html
@JustinFortier What constitutes the end of the strikes according to you? The approval of the deals or returning to work?
@Ernie @shump I’m going with the UAW announcement on their website. The strike stopped today. The market will resolve of the members ratify the deal. If they don’t and go on strike, the day count will continue
@JustinFortier Could you clarify, do you mean that if ratified at a future date, it will retroactively have ended today? Here is a UAW tweet about their process for reference. Like, if Step 5 happens, then Step 1 was in hindsight when the strike ended (for this market)? https://x.com/uaw/status/1718407350795837575?s=46&t=ysuToRHdvIMAo_KadMtpHA
@Panfilo Yes, if step 5 happens. Step 1 will be the end for this market. I will not resolve the market until a deal is ratified.
@JustinFortier I actually think this makes much more sense than Ernie's approach. It seems weird that meanings can change retroactively, but that's how the colloquial use of language works.
