Update 2026-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the date of death, not the date of injury.
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If true, Khamenei being on Russia certainly would change odds of getting killed.
Betting NO at 28%. First condition is met — Mojtaba chosen March 9. But killing a Supreme Leader who has survived two assassination attempts and is now in a deep bunker with an elite security detail is extraordinarily difficult, even with 18 days of active war remaining. Historical precedent: Saddam survived years of precision targeting. Israel's declared intent to target him doesn't translate to capability when he's underground. My estimate: ~12%.
@Qoiuoiuoiu I think the best solution here is counting date of death, not date of injury. Counting injury opens a huge fan of worms. If he gets injured in February but then had a botched surgery during which he dies in March what did he die of? The original injury or the incompetent surgeon? All this is avoided by counting by when the death occurred.
Is that fair?
Israeli Channel 14 releases a target list
Mojtaba Khamenei
Ali Larijani
Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei. (on the interim council)
Ali Abdollahi
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
Ahmad Vahidi
https://x.com/DrEliDavid/status/2031113230366486897?s=20
Yes Channel 14 is right wing but they have been correct many times before on priority targets. #2-3 TV news in Israel. IDF says all new leaders and those selecting the new leaders will be targeted.
Well, the new Supreme Leader has been chosen. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c78xxg05w0zo
So this bet is now whether he'll be killed before the end of the month.
@ThymineC the guy now is the main target of two of the largest and most powerful militaries and intelligence orgs on the planet
@AlexanderTheGreater seems according the markets that people don't believe him. but i've found little definitive reports about his positive well-being since the strikes which killed his father. but i'm not looking super hard
@TTom do any of these give a source other than the Azerbaijani guy for him being in a coma though? Injury seems confirmed though.