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Bye bye Simon O'Connor - Van Velden up by 3,000 votes now, with around 40% National voters seemingly breaking for her. ACT gain from National.

@sarius yes definitely looking that way.

Resolving

@JulianLees based on the 91% count, don't see there being enough votes remaining for Oconnor

And we're back to where we started 50:50 😀

Refer here too, seem to be aligned as you'd expect. Big swing in expectations of ACT/van Velden after recent poll results

ACT's Brooke van Velden turns up heat on Simon O'Connor in new poll https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/499326/act-s-brooke-van-velden-turns-up-heat-on-simon-o-connor-in-new-poll

ACT's Brooke van Velden turns up heat on Simon O'Connor in new poll

The ACT party candidate is locked in a statistical tie with the incumbent in the previously safe National seat of Tāmaki, a new Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll reveals.

Apparently this electorate has been voting for the same party since 1960, so I’m doubtful it’ll change soon.

@duck_master That's correct, fair conclusion.

There's been some commentary indicating that of any year the chance of a change is highest this election year. A couple of possible reasons why the likelihood (while potentially low still) may be higher than ever:

• The level of dissatisfaction with the current government has led to an increase in polarisation

• A new candidate who is second on the Act party list has entered the electorate race (Brooke van Velden)

• Act are widely viewed as right of the central/right leaning National party

• Another electorate of a similar demographic (Epsom) has been voting for Act party leader David Seymour for 3 consecutive terms

• The Act party vote is polling at higher levels than the previous 3 elections