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Ben O'Keeffe surely out of the running now but possibly considered for Bronze Final? Setting my watch for the time Wayne Barnes surges up the ranks. Will be interesting to see who gets chosen

@nicwest06d6 - interested in your thoughts at this stage, got a spreadsheet update?

@JulianLees yeah 100% not going to be O'Keeffe or Williams now. Gardner is clearly still in France which is interesting.

in other news Andrew Brace was going to be a touch judge in the England/South Africa game, but he's pulled a calf muscle and Raynal has replaced him.

The big question for me is the result tonight, if England wins it really narrows the pool and it would surprise me if we didn't see Raynal in the final. if SA wins then Barnes can't referee the 3rd place game so I would expect to see him in the final and Raynal or Peyper in the 3rd place playoff game.

@nicwest06d6 I read an article which indicated Peyper got injured in the quarterfinal with Wales? I wonder if he is a candidate still or not?

Gardener/Raynal looking strong candidates though!

Well done @nicwest06d6, the most thoughtful and thorough analysis I've seen on a rugby world cup question leads us to the answer in the end.

Wayne Barnes locked in. Thanks a lot for your input on this question it's been really insightful to follow along with.

Deservedly the most profit from this question too.

@JulianLees I hate to be that guy, but until they actually start the game, that ref could change. for example if Wayne Barnes gets food poisoning the morning of the game they will replace him.

@nicwest06d6 fair point. Perhaps I should've opted to close instead of resolve because from my standpoint the larger preconditions are in place for Barnes's selection. Given I can't see a means of reversing yet it will have to remain resolved for now.

I'm still reasonably comfortable that the odds of change are sufficiently low that this will not be one of my bigger mistakes on a market 😂 You live and you learn. Will take note of this for next time.

@JulianLees I'm sure it will be fine :D

@nicwest06d6 we shall see 😄

Nika Amashukeli has been added to the list as requested

@JulianLees Any chance you could add Nika Amashukeli to the list? I think he's been an outstanding ref this tournament and appointing a Georgian to the RWC final would be a great message for international rugby.

@nicwest06d6 sure thing

Wayne Barnes speaks French, might be considered over the others if France make it to the finals and England don't (both likely events in my opinion)

This might be considered a proxy for who is not getting to the finals.

I put this together because I couldn't find a consolidated list on Wikipedia:

@nicwest06d6 really interesting, admittedly i never thought to this level of depth but this is clearly a crucial point 👍 much appreciated

@JulianLees list of official refs and their nations.

@nicwest06d6 there's a semi final to go but would you think Ben O'Keeffe's bid probably took a hit?

Also would any of the Australian's be elevated?

To be honest I was surprised you had such high expectations of Nika Amashukeli, curious what your thoughts are there?

@JulianLees re: O'Keeffe, you are right, deffinately a lot less likely now.

re: Australian's, Angus Gardner is probably the only senior ref on that list without a dog in the fight now, I've been wondering how far in advance they assign the refs in the back rooms, like if world rugby thought Angus Gardner was a safe pair of hands for the final then maybe it makes sense to just assign him now and let him start prep? I would be interested to know if he was still in france.

re: Nika Amashukeli, I think he is a great ref (possibly the best in this group bar Barnes), and he's georgian so a) they could assign him immediately after the group stages, and b) it sends a brilliant message to all the non teir 1 rugby nations. Maybe I have a little too much faith in world rugby.

I think if you look at the Quarter final assignments as a short list I think it's likely to be a senior ref not an outsider. Out of those refs I would consider England the least likely to make it to the final and thus Wayne Barnes most likely to ref (although by definition one of the others also won't make it so... who really knows).

If France don't make it to the final then Mathieu Raynal has to be the pick surely.

@nicwest06d6 fantastic stuff. This is such a rich analysis and learnt a lot!

(Naiively thinking at my end) when you say Gardner could prep now, would there be much benefit to that? Like without knowing teams etc. I wonder what shape a refs prep takes

@JulianLees yeah I wonder that as well. I know I've heard Nigel Owens talk about it before, but I can't remember what he said.

Hopefully goes without saying that 'Nice Berry' is equivalent to 'Nic Berry' - swipe text gave me a little too much help there