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Update 21/10 NZT:
Semifinal 1 in the books, here's the updated table. As reflected in the update probabilites, it is a big ask to reel in New Zealand whether or not they win the final. South Africa or England would need to score a minimum of 146 points in two matches (assuming New Zealand score none in the final). Argentina would need to more than double their points count in the Bronze final.

Update 17/10 NZT:
After yesterday's quartefinal wrap-up, New Zealand firmly in the lead France by 43 points with 2 games in hand to score further. Wales, Ireland, Fiji and France are now out of the running. England and South Africa are the closest equal chasers 101 points behind which seems near insurmountable.

Update 15/10 NZT:
New Zealand have opened up a commanding lead after the epic against Ireland this morning (now sitting top of the table at 281 points). It's a quirk of the draw and a shame that Ireland will not get a chance to add to their tally. It was one of those games where it's tough to have to decide who wins but that's sport and it's cruel. As a fan I know how heartbroken I would've been had New Zealand suffered a try at the death. The juxtoposition of heart-break and ecstacy.

Barring a couple of huge scores (and of course low score for New Zealand in the semi and final/bronze match) you would possibly think Argentina (156), South Africa (151), England (150) and Fiji (88) may struggle to claw back enough points relative to New Zealand. France are probably the best shot sitting at 210 with a quartefinal, possible semi and final/bronze.

Update 10/10 NZT:
Here is the top points scoring teams. 7 of the top 8 are quarterfinallists. Fiji a bit further down in 14th after their narrow loss to Portugal.

Update 06/10 NZT:
Top 5 point scorers as we enter the last round of pool matches. Two crushing wins albeit under little pressure has helped New Zealand surge to the top. Ireland and France could both surpass this total in their next games against Scotland and Italy respectively. Things are about to get interesting as we enter the sudden death phase.

Check out these other Rugby World Cup questions resolving soon:

Update 30/09 NZT:
Here are the top points scorers as it stands after NZL v ITA. New Zealand on top after racking up a huge winning margin.

It was a pretty thorough performance by the All Blacks albeit hard to read into given Italy didn't exert much pressure at all and did look dangerous the few times their backs got the ball in hand.

Update 23/09 NZT:
France on top after their big win over Namibia
Ireland and South Africa hot on their heels.

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/stats/teams?metric=points

Here's the latest update:

Still plenty of time for things to change. Good attacking intent paid off for New Zealand this morning against Namibia.

I was pleased to see this come through:
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-new-zealand-win-any-match-by-o

Will New Zealand win any match by over 50 points at the 2023 Rugby World Cup?

93% chance. Resolves YES if New Zealand wins a match at the World Cup by 51 points or more. Resolves NO if the World Cup finishes and this hasn't happened. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup

Ireland 82

Italy 52

Japan 42

Australia 35

Wales 32

France 27

England 27

Fiji 26

Others trailing