Then why not bet on whether he will have a down year or even a mid-career drop-off instead?
This market is really unpleasant and does not produce valuable information. I think you should reconsider it.
@JuddBlackberg I don't think "Manifold shouldn't bet on whether people get divorced" is the toxic position here
@JoshuaWilkes You can run your mouth with me on here all you like, but just don't try that in a small town. Maybe you get away with being like that since your parents didn't raise you right and that's how they do things in California, I get it, but just don't be trying that in Missouri. Let this be a teaching moment for you.
@JuddBlackberg sorry that you feel a need to resort to threats of physical violence over an intellectual online disagreement
just wanted to drop a quick note here. there's nothing about this market that is against Manifold guidelines, and I respect that there's a difference of opinion between market creators and bettors sometimes about whether a market should exist.
however, it is in the Guidelines (currently being updated, but this is a point that won't change) to be civil to one another. please avoid being aggressive toward other users.
@JoshuaWilkes No threats of physical violence brochacho! Next time just keep scrolling and skip my question, no need for the toxicity, I didn't leave the first comment here and certainly don't do this on your markets. Let's just leave it at that.
@JuddBlackberg Keep up good work! Good market like this one should be most eligible for the price points!!!