The streams have finally crossed on Canada's leading poll aggregator and seat projector 338Canada, with the Liberal Party of Canada now narrowly leading the Conservative Party of Canada by one seat.

Will this remain the case on April 1st, when the election campaign has likely begun, or will the Conservatives have taken back the lead by then?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on the evening of April 1st, 2025, the Liberal Party of Canada is leading the Conservative Party of Canada in projected seats according to the 338Canada projection model. The market will resolve to NO if another party is leading in projected seats or if there is an exact tie.