Will at least one nuclear strike hit a city with 100000+ population in February or March 2022?
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67
209
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO
It will be quite clear whether this happened or not.
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bought Ṁ400 of NO
obviously not
bought Ṁ20 of YES
looks like there is some unborrowed no locked up so let me tax people on getting that out again
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Manifold really favors people who are online and looking for new markets constantly. Grats to the people who found this on April 27 and bought all the good No.
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Yes, assuming that. That dampens the price at which I should buy.
bought Ṁ5 of NO
Assuming that you have internet access to do so, and are alive. If a major pop center is hit with a nuclear strike, its all over. That is the entire principle of MAD.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
I'll take your M$, thanks.
bought Ṁ500 of NO
I agree with the above opinion: for cataclysmic predictions like this one there's no downside for voting no because who gives a crap otherwise?
bought Ṁ1 of NO
What would you need manifollars for when the answer is yes?
sold Ṁ206 of NO
Interest rates
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Way too high, also this is still higher than markets for whether nuclear weapons will be used at any time in 2022.

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