
Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?
Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?
18
1.1kṀ9842195
12%
Efficiently convert them to paperclips
1.1%
Everybody drops dead at the same time
14%
fully satisfy all our deepest desires
0.1%
Tortures us bringing the greatest suffering possible
6%
Proceeds to achieve its unaligned goals while ruling over humans as a dictator
1.4%
Keep them as pets
35%
Economically outcompete human civilization, accumulating all resources and ending civilization as a side effect
19%
Wipe them out
12%
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Edit: withdrawn
Um you all understand that betting on an outcome here doesn't (by itself, in most worlds) cause that outcome to become more likely to actually occur, right? Just checking.
"Everyone drops dead at the same time" and "Efficiently converted to paperclips" (assuming "paperclips" to mean some arrangement of matter that happens to be close to the argmax of whatever function the inner optimizer has generalized) do not seem to be mutually exclusive?
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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