Will Bart Kay be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
7
887
170
2029
16%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Bart Kay (Youtuber, carnivore diet proponent) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.

Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.

Question is global -- charges in any country count.

Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.

Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.

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Of what felonies might he be charged?

Never mind. I see you've got about 50 markets like this.

@GooglyEyes Right, and the vast majority will not be charged of anything. Alas, if I could accurately predict that in advance.

Note that I had some trouble confirming his professorship. Click here for what looks like his user page on Google Scholar. On his LinkedIn it mentions a "Professor in Health Sciences" from Dec 1997 - Sep 2016, but it's hard to tell which university this was at.

Clear employment records aren't always possible. But my motivation for adding this market was seeing him say several things that seemed a bit off. E.g. "very confident self-promotion but seemingly no ties left with those institutions" type of thing. I see papers mentioning him as an author, but I cannot find records of him as a professor anywhere. I would appreciate any links or evidence.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

even given that, "lied about being a professor on the internet" -> "felony charges" can't be that common

@jacksonpolack For sure, I doubt it would raise the risk above baseline too much. He's got multiple red flags, but alas, criminal charges only capture one (relatively narrow) angle of credibility.