Will North Korea attempt a major military invasion of South Korea by Jan 1, 2025?
13
119
Ṁ1.8KṀ385
2025
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if any attempt is made at capturing territory greater than 25km^2 at the time of market open belonging to the Republic of Korea.
Territory considered to be part of the DMZ is NOT included unless the officially stated (or widely understood) aim is the capture of additional territory beyond it (a skirmish over a strip of minefield by low level officers will NOT resolve to YES).
An attempt that fails to actually capture any territory will still resolve to YES if the aim was understood or officially stated as the capture of more than 25km^2 of territory.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will North Korea engage in an active military conflict before 2026?
19% chance
Will any North Korean military action cause at least one South Korean military fatality in 2024?
17% chance
[Polymarket] Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024?
5% chance
Will over 100 North Korean troops be reported to illegally enter South Korea in 2024?
5% chance
Will North Korea invade South Korea by 2035?
16% chance
Will North Korea have an military conflict with South Korea that results in at least 1 death before Sept 1st?
25% chance
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2024?
28% chance
Will North Korea kill 1,000+ people before 2025 with nuclear strikes?
2% chance
Will Kim Jong Un go abroad in 2025?
70% chance
Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?
20% chance