After the election of the 22nd Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP in 2032, will the consensus among Western China analysts be that Xi has chosen a successor?

Traditionally a successor would be chosen at the beginning of a General Secretary's second and final term, who would serve on the PSC. Xi did not make such an 'appointment' in 2017 or 2022.

I will assess the consensus after the National Congress of the Party in 2032, unless the below criteria is met:

If the market for 2027 resolves YES, this will resolve NO

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-xi-jinping-choose-a-successor?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

I will not bet in this market.

Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2027?

50% chance. After the election of the 21st Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP in 2027, will the consensus among Western China analysts be that Xi has chosen a successor? Traditionally a successor would be chosen at the beginning of a General Secretary's second and final term, who would serve on the PSC. Xi did not make such an 'appointment' in 2017 or 2022. I will assess the consensus after the National Congress of the Party in 2027. I will not bet in this market.