https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-xi-talks-china-taiwan-8ed82d1b?st=kFCko8

Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 11:59:59 pm ET on December 31, 2026, Donald J. Trump or Marco Rubio personally states that “the United States opposes Taiwanese (Taiwan) independence” or a clear equivalent (e.g., “the U.S. opposes Taiwan independence,” “we [the United States] oppose Taiwan independence”) in a public, on‑the‑record forum. Acceptable venues include: official White House transcripts/videos, State Department transcripts/videos when Rubio is speaking, Trump’s verified Truth Social account, or published interviews/speeches with accessible video or transcripts. White House videos; State Dept video library; Truth Social platform. (whitehouse.gov)

• Exclusions: Statements like “we do not support Taiwan independence,” “we oppose unilateral changes to the status quo,” statements by aides/spokespersons without Trump/Rubio saying it themselves, quotations of others without endorsement, or off‑the‑record remarks. If content is later deleted, contemporaneous official transcripts, archived video, or reputable press with verbatim quotes suffice. If neither makes such a statement by the deadline, resolves NO.

Background

• The long‑standing public formulation has been “we do not support Taiwan independence,” reiterated by the White House on January 11, 2024. (whitehouse.gov)

• In February 2025, the State Department removed “we do not support Taiwan independence” from its Taiwan fact sheet, calling it a routine update; reporting emphasized the page still opposed unilateral status‑quo changes. (reuters.com)

• Historically, U.S. officials framed the stance as giving Taiwan independence “no support,” not explicitly “opposing” it. (history.state.gov)

Considerations

• Marco Rubio has been serving as U.S. Secretary of State since January 2025; his on‑the‑record statements are treated as articulations of U.S. policy. (reuters.com)

• Common phrasing like “oppose any unilateral change to the status quo” does not meet this market’s bar; it must explicitly say the U.S. “opposes” Taiwan independence. (whitehouse.gov)

• Verification will be simplest via official channels (WhiteHouse.gov videos/transcripts, State.gov video library) or Trump’s Truth Social feed. (whitehouse.gov)