Will Taiwan attend the 2026 APEC Summit in China?
2
100Ṁ20
2026
41%
chance

Resolution criteria

Taiwan will resolve YES if Taiwan participates in the 2026 APEC summit to be hosted by China. Resolution will be determined by official APEC records and announcements confirming Taiwan's (Chinese Taipei's) attendance at the summit. The event is scheduled for November 2026 and will be held in Shenzhen.

Background

Taiwan joined APEC as a full-member economy under the name "Chinese Taipei" in 1991. Taiwan is represented by a ministerial-level official as economic leader rather than a head of state. APEC is one of the few international meetings that both Taiwan and China take part in, and where officials from the two sides can interact. This will be the third time that China has hosted the influential APEC summit after the previous ones in 2001 and 2014.

Considerations

Taiwan has indicated it would participate in the 2026 APEC summit after Beijing promised it would ensure the personal safety of attendees. However, significant uncertainty remains. Taiwan's participation remains uncertain as relations continue to strain over China's 'one China' principle. In 2001 Taiwan boycotted the APEC summit in China after a disagreement over who it could send, demonstrating precedent for non-attendance. The 2026 summit comes amid heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait, as Beijing intensifies military activities near the island and refuses to engage with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te.

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