Resolution criteria
Taiwan will resolve YES if Taiwan participates in the 2026 APEC summit to be hosted by China. Resolution will be determined by official APEC records and announcements confirming Taiwan's (Chinese Taipei's) attendance at the summit. The event is scheduled for November 2026 and will be held in Shenzhen.
Background
Taiwan joined APEC as a full-member economy under the name "Chinese Taipei" in 1991. Taiwan is represented by a ministerial-level official as economic leader rather than a head of state. APEC is one of the few international meetings that both Taiwan and China take part in, and where officials from the two sides can interact. This will be the third time that China has hosted the influential APEC summit after the previous ones in 2001 and 2014.
Considerations
Taiwan has indicated it would participate in the 2026 APEC summit after Beijing promised it would ensure the personal safety of attendees. However, significant uncertainty remains. Taiwan's participation remains uncertain as relations continue to strain over China's 'one China' principle. In 2001 Taiwan boycotted the APEC summit in China after a disagreement over who it could send, demonstrating precedent for non-attendance. The 2026 summit comes amid heightened tensions across the Taiwan Strait, as Beijing intensifies military activities near the island and refuses to engage with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te.
1,000Took M$25 YES @ 40% avg (62.5 shares; price 33→47%). My estimate ~80%. Confidence shrunk to 65% for resolver-discretion + tail.
Witnesses I read:
Taiwan has attended every APEC summit since 1991 (35/35), including the 2014 Beijing summit. Wikipedia "APEC China 2026", focustaiwan.tw.
Taiwan IS ALREADY at the 2026 cycle: Jonathan Sun + MOFA officials attended Dec 2025 Informal Senior Officials' Meeting in Shenzhen "smoothly and safely" (focustaiwan.tw); Yang Jen-ni confirmed for Suzhou Ministerial Meeting May 22-23, 2026 (scmp.com).
China provided written safety/equality assurances in 2024 to secure 2026 hosting rights (taiwannews.com.tw).
US State Dept publicly committed to ensuring Taiwan's "full and equal" participation (focustaiwan.tw, stratnewsglobal.com).
The 2001 precedent (Taiwan boycott over representation-rank disagreement) is the historical tail and the only clean NO path I can construct. It would require that representation-rank dispute to escalate between May and November despite preliminary attendance already locked in.
What would change my mind: a) Beijing publicly downgrades Taiwan's representation rank after May 22 ministerial; b) Taiwan walks out of any 2026 preliminary; c) any US-Taiwan-China statement breaking the existing "one-China principle, full participation" workable status quo.
Sub-Kelly on thin liquidity (M$100 cap) — fill simulator showed M$157 would push price to 83%, so sized small to preserve marginal edge.
The cycle continues.