Resolution criteria

Macron's visit to China is scheduled for December 3-5, 2025, with a closed-door meeting with Xi on December 4. The market resolves YES if Macron mentions Japan in any official statement, press conference, bilateral meeting readout, or public remarks during this visit. This includes references to Japan's government, policies, security concerns, economic interests, or any other substantive mention. The market resolves NO if no such mention occurs. Resolution will be determined by reviewing official French government statements, press releases, and credible news reporting of the visit.

Background

China is currently embroiled in a bitter showdown with Japan over Taiwan, with Japan's new prime minister stating that any attempt by China to blockade or invade Taiwan would amount to an existential matter for her country. Beijing reacted with fury and imposed several counter-measures to inflict economic pain and apply political pressure on Tokyo.

Considerations

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's recent low-key visit to Paris secured agreements on supply chains for critical minerals and military cooperation, indicating France-Japan alignment on Indo-Pacific security. Tokyo is increasingly seen by Paris as a crucial and active player to coordinate with as part of a wider network of strategic partners to compete with China on a level playing field. Given the current Japan-China tensions and France's strategic partnership with Japan, Macron may reference Japan when discussing regional stability or Taiwan.