Will any of these countries enter into a pact similar to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?
Basic
1
Ṁ46
2030
50%
USA
59%
China
78%
New Zealand
50%
Papua New Guinea
50%
Indonesia
50%
Philippines
50%
Taiwan
75%
Japan
50%
France
50%
UK
50%
Chile

Any broadly similar agreement will count, think inclusive criteria rather than exclusive. A key factor would be that any agreement make provision for resettlement of citizens of the Pacific Island country to the other signing country.

Note that many of these countries have 'territories' in the Pacific. These do not count as Pacific Island countries unless they first gain independence.

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ChatGPT explainer below:

Australia has entered into a ground-breaking pact with Tuvalu, offering refuge to its citizens due to the severe impacts of climate change, particularly rising sea levels threatening the low-lying Pacific atolls of Tuvalu. The agreement, termed the Falepili Union, marks the first instance of Australia providing residency to foreign nationals in response to climate change threats. Up to 280 Tuvalu citizens annually will be granted visas permitting them to live, work, and study in Australia. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasized the nation's acknowledgment of its responsibility within the Pacific family, committing to both climate action and security assistance for Tuvalu. The treaty also includes Australia's defense commitment to Tuvalu against military aggression and Tuvalu's agreement not to enter defense pacts with other nations without Australia's approval. Additionally, Australia has pledged financial support, including A$16.9 million, to help Tuvalu adapt to climate change, with initiatives such as expanding the landmass of its main island by 6%. The pact is deemed the most significant agreement ever between Australia and a Pacific country.

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https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/502170/us-ready-now-to-deliver-climate-funding-for-the-pacific-ambassador-to-un

Interesting... US climate funding and strengthening ties but can't see them accepting climate refugees just yet

Niue and Cook Islands signed the diplomatic ties most recently

I haven't read much commentary but I presume part of this is (at least in part) diplomatic effort to oppose China? I.e a direct response to the Solomon's engagement with China in the last year or so...

In any case it's pleasing to see this engagement from a humanitarian point of view

Thinking predominantly countries with close proximity to the Pacific and also those heavily involved in development projects in Pacific nations in last 10-20 years...

Not sure about US appetite for this sort of engagement...

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