https://www.observingchina.org.uk/p/will-the-royal-navy-transit-the-taiwan?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=lkfo&triedRedirect=true

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, a Royal Navy ship completes a transit through the Taiwan Strait. The transit must be publicly reported by reputable news outlets or official Royal Navy communications. If no such transit occurs within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

The Taiwan Strait, a 180-kilometer-wide body of water separating Taiwan from mainland China, is a strategically significant and politically sensitive area. The People's Republic of China (PRC) claims sovereignty over Taiwan and considers the strait part of its territorial waters, while Taiwan and many other nations view it as international waters, asserting the right to freedom of navigation.

Historically, the Royal Navy has conducted transits through the Taiwan Strait, albeit infrequently. Notably, in September 2021, the frigate HMS Richmond sailed through the strait, marking the first such transit by a British warship since 2008. This action was part of a broader pattern of naval operations by Western countries asserting navigational rights in the region. (france24.com)

In December 2023, British Secretary of Defence Grant Shapps announced that a Royal Navy carrier strike group would visit Japan as part of its 2025 Indo-Pacific deployment. While he affirmed the UK's right to transit the Taiwan Strait under international law, he noted that the specific route had not been finalized at that time. (taipeitimes.com)

Considerations

• Geopolitical Sensitivities: Transits by foreign military vessels through the Taiwan Strait often elicit strong reactions from the PRC, which views such actions as challenges to its sovereignty. This geopolitical context may influence the Royal Navy's operational decisions regarding transits in 2025.

• Operational Announcements: Official announcements regarding naval deployments and transits are subject to change based on diplomatic considerations, security assessments, and evolving international relations. Therefore, while plans may be announced, they are not always executed as initially stated.

• Verification Sources: For the market to resolve to "Yes," the transit must be confirmed by credible sources such as official Royal Navy statements or reputable news organizations. Unverified reports or speculative information will not be considered sufficient for resolution.