Resolution criteria

This market resolves to whichever leader resigns from their position first. Keir Starmer is Leader of the Labour Party, while Kemi Badenoch is Leader of the Conservative Party. Resignation means formal departure from the leadership role, confirmed by official announcement or parliamentary record. If either leaves the position as party leader without resigning, the market resolves 50/50. If one of them is forced out and resigns because of this, they resigned.

Background

Starmer's net approval rating fell to an average of –46% by November 2025, making him the least popular prime minister since polling began in 1977. Fewer than half of those polled believed he would still be in No. 10 by the end of 2026. MPs viewed underperformance in the 2026 local elections as a likely catalyst for a leadership challenge.

Badenoch became Conservative Party leader in November 2024. After some time in the job, she has seemingly steadied the ship, and the Conservatives are ahead of Labour for the first time since the general election. However, just 25% of the British public believe Badenoch is likely to still be leader of her party by the time of the next election.

Considerations

Both leaders face significant pressure heading into 2026. A poor showing in May's elections could lead to an open revolt against Starmer. For Badenoch, a leadership challenge from Robert Jenrick is possible, with a poor performance at local elections potentially giving him ammunition to launch a bid.