What month will the second 'orbital' test flight of Starship take place?
JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkes
10
closes Nov 30
October
44%
November
32%
December+
16%
September
8%
August
0.2%
July
0.0%
May
0.0%
June
0.0%

Orbital is understood to include flight plans similar to the first test flight.

The December+ includes all dates after November 30th 2023, into 2024 and beyond. If a second test flight has not taken place by December 1st 2023, this market will resolve to December+, UNLESS SpaceX has announced that Starship is cancelled, in which case it will resolve NA.

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Mqrius avatar
Mqrius

What counts as a test flight? Launch clamps release after ignition?

2 replies
JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkes

@Mqrius yes, this seems to be the standard market definition

Mqrius avatar
Mqrius

@JoshuaWilkes mostly because I've been advocating it :p I've seen markets with countdown reaching zero, or clearing the launch tower. I feel like they're more ambiguous though